Can Alex Ovechkin become the NHL's all-time
goal-scoring king?
Despite having been retired for 16 years, Wayne Gretzky still owns more
than 50 NHL records - and it's fair to say that most of them are safe.
But "The Great One" may one day cede one of his most impressive
marks - the league record in goals - to "The Great 8."
With his next tally,
Washington Capitals uber-sniper
Alex Ovechkin
will move into a tie with Pat LaFontaine for 53rd on the NHL's all-time goals
list. And considering Ovechkin won't turn 30 until September, it's time to
ponder whether he has a legitimate shot at becoming the league's all-time goals
leader by the time his career is done.
Where He Stands
Entering Friday's tilt with the
Dallas Stars,
Ovechkin has 467 goals in 746 career regular-season games. He won't get to 500
by season's end, but with 14 games remaining, he should find himself somewhere
near the 475 range. (Then again, the way the Stars defend, he could get there
Friday.)
More significantly, Ovechkin averages 0.626 goals per game over his career -
the fifth-highest rate of all-time, and 0.25 goals ahead of Gretzky himself,
who set the standard with 894 goals. Two guys ahead of Ovechkin - Cy Denneny
and Babe Dye - played at a time when 24-game seasons were the norm, while the
other two - Mike Bossy and Mario Lemieux - saw their chances at the
goal-scoring crown curtailed by injury.
Based solely on goals per game, Ovechkin has an excellent chance at racking
up enough scores to pass Gretzky. But with Ovechkin going into Friday still 427
goals behind "The Great One," it'll take some work.
What He Needs
Health
Ovechkin has had the good fortune of remaining relatively healthy over the
course of his career, which is by far the biggest contributing factor to
his run at the crown. He credits a
thorough training regimen with helping him stay on the ice,
but every fan knows it doesn't take much for a player to wind up on the
sidelines. Ovechkin needs to stay healthy - not just for now, but into the twilight
of his career.
Production
It's one thing to look at Ovechkin's goals-per-game output and extrapolate
future production based on that number. But it isn't always that simple;
Gretzky averaged an absurd .823 goals per game over his first 10 seasons
before the goal-scoring eventually dried up. Ovechkin is a born goal
scorer, and should stay productive for several more seasons. But
projecting a 0.626 GPG pace for seven or eight more years is optimistic.
Motivation
Ovechkin seems satisfied to be playing in the top hockey league in the
world. Then again, so did
Jaromir Jagr before he stunningly bolted for Europe,
spending three seasons overseas and effectively taking himself out of the running
for the goal-scoring crown. There's no indication Ovechkin
would do the same - but it has happened before. And if he did, he'd
have virtually no chance of catching Gretzky, even if he did return.
What Will Happen
Assuming Ovechkin stays reasonably healthy, maintains a decent level of
production even into his late 30s and remains in the NHL the entire time,
he has an outside shot of catching Gretzky:
- At his
current GPG pace, Ovechkin would tie Gretzky's mark in 682 games, or
roughly 8 1/2 seasons.
- At a slightly
reduced pace of .575 goals per game, Ovechkin would tie Gretzky's mark in
742 games, or roughly 9 1/2 seasons.
- At a more
reduced pace of .500 goals per game, Ovechkin would tie Gretzky's mark in
854 games, or roughly 10 1/2 seasons.
He may need to play into his early 40s, and it won't hurt to have a
playmaking center attached to his hip at all times. But if everything goes
right, one of the greatest records in NHL history will one day belong to Alex
Ovechkin.
(Sorry, Wayne.)
http://www.msn.com/en-ca/sports/nhl/can-alex-ovechkin-become-the-nhls-all-time-goal-scoring-king/ar-AA9Jsdv?ocid=mailsignoutmd#fullstory
Alex Ovechkin has made it to 500 (and 501) career goals in the NHL after 801
games at the age of 30. The only four NHL players to make it to 500 career
goals in fewer games were Brett Hull, Mike Bossy, Mario Lemieux and Wayne
Gretzky; the latter three did it at a younger age.
Two more recent comparables who scored
their 500th goal in the same season that they turned 31 were Steve Yzerman who
scored his at an age of 30.69 years, and Jaromir Jagr who was 30.96 years old.
Ovechkin is 30.31 years old.
As we discussed earlier this season, Ovechkin is already
arguably the greatest goal scorer ever when we adjust for the scoring era he is
playing in. But the more interesting question down the line is: will he be able
to catch Gretzky’s all-time goal record? It is an amazingly daunting task,
particularly when one considers that Gretzky racked up most of his goals in the
free-wheeling 1980s, generating more than 75 per cent of his goals before the
end of 1989-90.
We can make an effort to project where
Ovechkin is likely to end up on the career goals list by examining the
production trajectory of past greats. If we look at how the top 10 goal scorers
in NHL history – plus Mike Bossy – produced over time, we can get an idea of
how much of their production occurs in any given season during their career.
This graph shows the cumulative percentage
of each scorer’s career goal total produced as they age. By looking at the
results (black line) for the group over time we can see that by age 30 the
average scorer has already produced 70 per cent of their career goal total. Yet
we know that Ovechkin is well above average in a few regards with respect to
this group.
We
know that Ovechkin’s peak average goal scoring rate is the second-highest in
NHL history when adjusted for era. We also know that his average goals per game
scoring rate has remained amazingly consistent and very high relative to the
other players in this sample. While his goal scoring peaked at the age of 24 in
a fairly typical fashion, he has sustained a career goals per game played rate
over 0.60 beyond the age of 30, which only Gretzky, Bossy, Lemieux, Esposito
and Hull were able to do.
Ovechkin
has also remained remarkably durable and healthy, which has him in good
standing relative to the likes of Lemieux, Gretzky and Yzerman who all suffered
significant health issues as their careers progressed.
Assuming
his conditioning lasts, and he continues playing in the NHL – unlike Jagr who
took a hiatus overseas in the KHL, or Howe who left the NHL to play in the WHA
– Ovechkin’s career will likely take him beyond age 38 and could even last
until 42 or 43 years of age if he wants. If we ballpark him at 80 games per
year through the age of 40, that would suggest he likely has another roughly
840 or so games left in his career.
By
using the average gap between the sample of top scorers’ career distribution in
games played and goals scored, we can come up with a very rough estimate of how
many goals he is likely to produce as he ages through 40.
Wayne
Gretzky scored 894 goals in his NHL career, with the majority coming in an era
where his shooting percentage of over 20 per cent wasn’t considered absurd.
Ovechkin, based on much of what we’ve seen in his career to date and assuming
he remains injury free, is on track to score around 30 fewer goals by the age
of 40.
This
in an era where goals are amazingly hard to come by – Ovechkin currently has a
career 12.4 shooting percentage. This really should drive home how exceedingly
rare a talent like Ovechkin is and how amazingly lucky we are to be on hand to
see his record setting performances night to night.
THE
LESSON
I
can’t help but think that if Ovechkin is that close to Gretzky’s record at age
40 he will push on until he matches or exceeds it, but that decision is still a
decade away. Here’s hoping Ovechkin keeps shooting pucks at the net as often as
possible, and that he gets the praise and recognition to go along with what an
amazingly productive player he has been over his career.
Congrats
on 500 Alex, only 394 left to pass The Great One.
